NCIA Deputy Director of Communications Bethany Moore checks in with what’s going on across the country with the National Cannabis Industry Association’s membership, board, allies, and staff. Join us every Friday here on Facebook for NCIA Today Live.
NCIA Deputy Director of Communications Bethany Moore checks in with what’s going on across the country with the National Cannabis Industry Association’s membership, board, allies, and staff. Join us every Friday on Facebook for NCIA Today Live.
Registration to our Midwest Cannabis Business Conference in Detroit is now open with special limited-time super early bird pricing on tickets available, head to www.MidwestCannabisBusinessConference.com today!
by Beau R Whitney, NCIA’s Chief Economist
The first half of the year was a strong one for cannabis revenues. After a strong first quarter, with $5.9 billion in revenue, cannabis retailers are experiencing continued growth in Q2 with preliminary results coming in at $6.2 billion to $6.5 billion.
If this trend remains in the second half of the year, the cannabis retail sales are projected to be $24.5 to $25 billion for the year. This would reflect another cycle of 35% year-over-year growth.
Source: Whitney Economics, Leafly
While the industry has seen strong growth over the past year, this does not necessarily mean that the industry as a whole is in good shape. Retailers are struggling to make profits due in a large part to federal taxation. IRC 280E does not allow entities conducting business in federally illicit trade, such as cannabis, to write off common and ordinary deductions from their federal taxes. As a result, cannabis operators pay significantly more taxes than other businesses. This has long been an issue with the cannabis industry and organizations such as NCIA has been working tirelessly to address this, but as long as it remains a federal policy it will be negatively impacting the industry.
With over $12 billion in first-half revenues, cannabis retailers will be on the hook for $1.2 billion in federal taxes for the first half of the year alone. This is $756 million more than what “normal” businesses would pay. Cannabis retailers are forecasted to pay over $1.5 billion more in taxes in 2021 and, when combined with the rest of the supply chain, will pay over $2.2 billion in additional taxes in 2021.
| 280e Example of Impact on Retail | Normal Business | 280E Business | Comment | |
| Retail mid-Year Revenue | $12,000,000,000 | $12,000,000,000 | Based on data from Whitney Economics | |
| Cost of Goods Sold (COGS = 50%) | $6,000,000,000 | $6,000,000,000 | ||
| Ordinary and Necessary Expenses (30%) | $3,600,000,000 | $3,600,000,000 | Not allowed under 280e | |
| Real Pre-Tax Profit w/o 280e | $2,400,000,000 | $2,400,000,000 | ||
| Taxable Profit | $2,400,000,000 | $6,000,000,000 | Big difference in taxable rates | |
| Fed Tax @21% * | $504,000,000 | $1,260,000,000 | Retailers pay 150% more | |
| Effective tax rate | 21.0% | 52.5% | Some effective tax rates approach 60%-70% | |
| Net Annual Profit (Before State Tax and Debt Service) | $1,896,000,000 | $1,140,000,000 | A difference of $201,000 per year per retailer |
Source: Whitney Economics
*Assumes taxed at C-corporation rates
The effective tax rate increases significantly for retailers and in many cases exceeds 60% to 70%. The level of additional taxes that cannabis operators pay, over the course of the next five years, will increase by an average of $630 million per year for the industry if the business tax rates increase from 21% to 28%. Depending on how corporate tax policy negotiations are settled, things may go from bad to worse for cannabis retailers.
Based on sales data from 2020, there were over 7,550 licensed cannabis retailers in the U.S. with each retailer generating an average of $2.4 million per year. This is right around the amount of revenue required to be a sustainable retail business. In 2021, there have been roughly 1,000 more retailers licensed and even with an increase in sales, retailers are only forecasted to average $2.7 million per year.in sales. In fact, in 13 states, retailers are not projected to average the $2.4 million per year to remain viable. While retailers in some states may be OK, other retailers are not able to make ends meet.
IRC 280E will reduce cannabis retailers cash flow by $200,000 in 2021 and that $200,000 would go a long way in shoring up the finances and provide retailers with the breathing room they need to remain viable. 280E reform would allow retailers to pay for health care for more employees, hire more workers and expand their business. However, in the current environment, many cannabis operators will continue to struggle.
The key message here is that retailers are under duress due to 280E and policy reform in the area of federal taxes may make the difference between success and failure. The time for reform is now, before it is too late.
by Beau Whitney, NCIA’s Chief Economist
Supply tightness in the labor market represents a significant risk to cannabis operators heading into the summer months. With the potential of wage inflation adding to the costs of businesses, many operators that are struggling to make ends meet due to the economic stresses associated with 280E now face higher labor costs. This labor tightness and higher costs could not have come at the worst time.
The recent U.S. Bureau and Labor Statistics jobs report for May, published on Friday, June 4, 2021, indicated that there were 559,000 jobs added in the U.S. economy. This amount was lower than what analysts had predicted, but still strong nonetheless.
The report also showed that the labor force participation rates held steady which is a good sign that people are not getting too frustrated with their job search. The BLS data also indicated that there are still 9.3 million workers unemployed. Even with these higher numbers of displaced workers, this level is roughly 3.6 million workers higher than it was pre-pandemic when unemployment was at record lows. Considering that 1.1 million workers are on temporary layoff status, a remaining 2.5 million delta is a significant improvement relative to the 18.0 million workers displaced in April of 2020.
While there are differing opinions on policy on how to support the unemployed, the key point here is that the labor force is significantly tighter than what most believe and this could become a major issue for the cannabis industry.
Ever since the great recession, there have basically been more workers than jobs. As a result, employers could pick and choose who to hire and offer them lower wages. This recent job report indicates that now there are more jobs than workers, so workers now have the upper hand when it comes to supplying their labor. This is resulting in wage inflation and labor shortages.
This should be a concern for cannabis operators. Labor is one of the highest costs for operators and if wages continue to rise, this will put a squeeze on already slim margins. Reduced labor availability is already being felt across the country and could become very acute as more labor is required to handle increased retail sales and as the outdoor cultivation industry heads into harvest season. Product manufacturers and retailers are already seeing spot shortages even in states where cannabis operators receive living wages such as in Oregon and Colorado.
In reaction to these labor shortages, some MSOs are offering incentives and sign-on bonuses in order to attract workers, even for positions not requiring highly skilled workers. Unfortunately, smaller businesses may not be able to afford these types of incentives. As a result, this will continue to create competitive advantages for MSOs and to generate opportunities that favor larger firms over smaller ones.
Higher costs are not the only concern for cannabis operators. The heavy burden associated with paying higher federal business taxes due to 280E is already driving smaller operators out of the market or forcing them into consolidation with larger, well-financed firms. Smaller entities already have higher costs. The additional risks associated with labor shortages and higher wages could force more operators who are on the edge, into consolidation as well.
Operators who cannot absorb the higher costs for labor, may need to find additional areas in which to cut costs. Unfortunately, this may involve doing more with less (fewer workers), bringing in automation, or reducing product offerings (lower inventory overhead). A common area of cost-cutting is also healthcare, but in an environment of high competition for a limited labor pool, reducing benefits may not be an option.
While many other programs at the federal level have helped struggling businesses outside of the cannabis space, federal tax reform could be a simple, yet elegant solution that would provide widespread relief to struggling cannabis operators and free up cash flow to help offset wage increases.
In the meantime, the anticipated growth in the overall market may decelerate slightly as the industry encounters headwinds as we head into the summer and fall.
NCIA is working with members of Congress to highlight how critically important sound policy is to cannabis operators across the country and how tax reform makes good economic sense. Bringing the voices of cannabis business owners to congress is a very powerful tool in the effort to reform cannabis laws. Now it is up to Congress to act.
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