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Member Blog: Cannabis Industry Predictions for 2024

Presented by the Cannabis Team with BGM, a Seedling Member of NCIA

As we usher in the transformative year of 2024, the cannabis industry stands at the threshold of unprecedented growth and evolution. The Cannabis Team at BGM, a dedicated Seedling Member of the National Cannabis Industry Association (NCIA), invites you to explore the latest insights and predictions for the cannabis sector in their comprehensive blog post. This overview provides a glimpse into the changing landscape, legislative shifts, emerging market dynamics, and the multitude of opportunities and challenges that lie ahead.

Let’s look at the latest insights and 2024 predictions for the cannabis industry. This blog addresses the changing landscape, including regulatory shifts and market opportunities. Continue reading to explore the future of the cannabis industry and learn how your cannabis business can stay ahead in the coming year.

Growth and Expansion

In 2024, the global cannabis market is expected to experience substantial growth, fueled by emerging legal markets, innovative product offerings, and technological advancements. This growth presents opportunities and challenges, especially in navigating complex legal and regulatory landscapes.

Market Dynamics

  • Projected Market Growth: The U.S. cannabis market is projected to grow significantly. Retail cannabis sales could reach $53.5 billion by 2027, with adult-use sales growing more rapidly. States like New York are working on finalizing details to launch approved programs, contributing to this growth​​.
  • Technological Advancements: Blockchain and AI will likely revolutionize supply chain management and compliance tracking.
  • Product Innovation: The trend toward personalized cannabis products is expected to gain traction as consumers become more educated and discerning. Cannabis companies will likely continue tailoring their products to meet a wide range of individual needs and preferences. However, pre-rolls are projected to continue to be a top product sale item in 2024. As people progress in their exploration and knowledge of cannabis, we believe they will gravitate towards craft cannabis products, and artisanal flower, despite the enduring demand for low-cost and convenient options.

Legislative Predictions

  • Legalization: We foresee several additional states legalizing recreational cannabis in 2024. Federal legalization of medical or recreational cannabis appears to be a long way off, as demonstrated by the inability of the SAFE Banking Act to pass in Congress.
  • SAFE Banking Act: This continues to be a pivotal issue, with potential movement expected in 2024.
  • Federal Rescheduling: Anticipated action by President Biden could reshape the industry’s regulatory framework, impacting financial reporting and taxation.
  • State-Level Changes: States like Maryland, possibly followed by Pennsylvania and Ohio, may influence regional market dynamics and tax structures.

Industry Trends

  • Ancillary Services: As the industry grows, so does the demand for financial and ancillary services, highlighting the need for specialized accounting solutions and advisory services.
  • Canadian Market Resurgence: Canadian cannabis stocks may witness a revival, affecting cross-border financial transactions and investment strategies.
  • Global Influence: Germany’s role as a market catalyst emphasizes the importance of understanding international financial regulations in the cannabis sector.

State Trends

  • Maryland and Neighboring States: Maryland’s recent move to full legalization is expected to influence neighboring states. Analysts predict that Pennsylvania might follow Maryland’s lead. There’s also pressure on Virginia to get its program operational in 2024.
  • Vermont and Mississippi: Farmers in states such as Vermont and Mississippi, which have legalized cannabis, face challenges with federal regulations around hemp cultivation. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has rescinded hemp licenses for some farmers who grow marijuana, reflecting the ongoing conflict between federal and state laws regarding cannabis.
  • New York: The New York Cannabis Control Board anticipates approving additional licenses in early 2024. We will wait to see the progress.
  • Continued Legalization Trends: More states are likely to embrace broader cannabis legalization, including CBD and Delta 8 THC, enhancing consumer accessibility across the U.S. This trend is driven by legal advancements, ongoing research, and shifting societal views.

To continue reading the full article and explore the remaining sections on Financial Implications, Technology and Data Management, Ethical and Social Considerations, Global Market Integration, and Risk Management, click here to visit BGM’s website. Your journey into the future of cannabis begins now.

Join the Cannabis Movement: Become an NCIA Member Today

As we delve into the transformative year of 2024 in the cannabis industry, it’s crucial to be part of a community that champions growth, innovation, and advocacy. The National Cannabis Industry Association (NCIA) stands at the forefront, shaping the future of the cannabis sector.

Why Join NCIA?

  • Network with Industry Leaders: Connect with like-minded professionals, industry leaders, and visionaries who are driving the cannabis industry forward. NCIA offers a platform for networking and collaboration that is unparalleled.
  • Stay Informed: Stay ahead of the curve with the latest insights, trends, and legislative updates. NCIA provides valuable resources and information, ensuring that you are well-informed about the dynamic landscape of the cannabis market.
  • Advocacy and Influence: Be part of a collective voice that advocates for sensible cannabis policies at the national level. As a member of NCIA, you contribute to shaping the regulatory environment and fostering a thriving, responsible cannabis industry.

Who Should Join?

If you are a cannabis business owner, entrepreneur, investor, or industry enthusiast, NCIA is your gateway to a community that understands the unique challenges and opportunities within the cannabis sector. Whether you’re navigating legislative changes, seeking business connections, or staying informed about market dynamics, NCIA is the ultimate resource.

How to Join:

Becoming an NCIA member is simple. Visit our membership page to explore the benefits and choose the membership level that aligns with your goals. Join the community that is actively shaping the future of the cannabis industry.

U.S. Cannabis Business Conditions Survey Report Reveals Critical Concerns for the Cannabis Industry in 2022

by Beau Whitney, NCIA’s Chief Economist

As the largest national trade association of the cannabis industry, NCIA works to advocate for and advance the interests of hundreds of member businesses. The recent publication of the Whitney Economics U.S. Cannabis Business Conditions Survey Report offers a granular look at how respondents are feeling, and what they are worried about. 

Survey description

There were a total of 396 respondents to the Whitney Economics U.S. Cannabis Business Conditions Survey. Respondents were either licensed cannabis businesses or ancillary businesses to the cannabis industry, and were from 20 states across the country. According to the report, the objective of the survey was to “establish a baseline of data, and identify the successes and the challenges that operators in the industry are facing.” 

The survey examined policy, regulatory issues, industry successes, and overall industry sentiment using questions around demographics, questions intended to definitively answer a specific question, and questions with the opportunity to offer multiple responses or comments. We are pleased that NCIA members participated in the survey. Because this survey is intended to be conducted on a quarterly basis moving forward, we expect that a growing number of the NCIA membership will want to participate.

Key Takeaways From the Survey

  • Only 42% of respondents are turning a profit. Further, in terms of profitability, female respondents and non-white respondents are faring much worse than white, male respondents. 
    • While 58% of businesses overall are not making a profit (either breaking even or losing money), 62.5% of female-run businesses are not turning a profit and 67.8% of BIPOC businesses are not turning a profit. 
  • Lack of banking, market volatility, and state & federal taxation are the key issues facing cannabis operators. 
    • 72% of respondents stated that access to banking and other financial services was the top issue facing them.
    • Smaller operators are struggling by being pulled in two different directions. On one side is the competition from the illicit market that competes for the same customers as the smaller operators and the other side is the ever presence of big businesses looking to consolidate the market.
    • Taxation is an issue that impacts all businesses regardless of size. Cannabis operators run the risk of being taxed out of business. State policymakers are focused on state issues without considering the impact of federal policy and federal policymakers are not considering the state policy. This lack of a unified tax policy is creating strain on business operators. 
  • The concerns of the industry are weighing heavier on the minds of operators than are the successes, and this is impacting industry sentiment.
    • Business owners are quite proud of their accomplishments over the past year, from increasing opportunities for women and minorities, to doing more for their workers and educating an ever-increasing clientele.
    • Despite this success though, cannabis operators’ concerns far outweigh their feeling of success and this is impacting the overall sentiment.
    • The word cloud on the successes tells a compelling story.

We are very excited that we have now established a baseline of new data that reflects operator sentiment and business conditions. This can help support the narratives with data when having policy discussions at the state and federal levels and to help shape strategy for operators in this space.

“We are delighted on how this initial survey turned out and look forward to surveying the cannabis landscape regularly in the future. We really appreciate the support we received from leading national cannabis organizations such as NCIA.” – Beau Whitney

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